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What another year of growth means for ETF industry

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Dunwoody noted, too, that as populations have aged they have shifted to demand a lower cost investment option. Retirees are facing longer lifespans and have struggled in recent years with poor performance in the bond market. In order to make their money last longer, the lower fee options presented by ETFs have become more attractive.

In terms of the strategies and styles of ETFs on offer, Dunwoody expects there to be some growth and greater popularity in risk mitigation oriented ETFs in the coming months. That reflects both an aging population that has become more risk averse and an increasing need for caution among investors of almost any age as the global economy slows.

Dunwoody admits she is positively surprised by the flows we’ve seen in ETFs so far this year. Given growth rates of over 20% year over year for the ETF industry, she sometimes worries that the other shoe will drop and mutual fund flows will exceed ETFs once again. The fact that didn’t happen in 2023, despite the various market headwinds, validates her thesis that the ETF industry is well established and deeply rooted in the Canadian landscape.

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Dunwoody expects growth to continue in 2024, at the very least due to flows into ETFs. Market movements are far less predictable, though some gloomy forecasts for growth imply that we may not see a market-driven surge in ETF assets.

Fixed income may become a driver for asset growth once again. Dunwoody notes that many advisors who spent the past two or three years eschewing fixed income are looking more closely at the asset class again. That same theme of aging populations, combined with the declining yields we can expect from HISA ETFs following a recent regulatory change, may drive flows towards fixed income ETFs.

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