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Inflation tumbles, and nonetheless we anticipate indicators that the Financial institution of England may reply

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Because the Workplace for Nationwide Statistics reported at 7.00 this morning:

  • The Shopper Costs Index (CPI) rose by 3.4% within the 12 months to February 2024, down from 4.0% in January.
  • On a month-to-month foundation, CPI rose by 0.6% in February 2024, in contrast with an increase of 1.1% in February 2023.
  • The biggest downward contributions to the month-to-month change in CPI got here from meals, and eating places and cafes, whereas the most important upward contributions got here from housing and family companies, and motor fuels.
  • Core CPI (excluding power, meals, alcohol and tobacco) rose by 4.5% within the 12 months to February 2024, down from 5.1% in January; the CPI items annual fee slowed from 1.8% to 1.1%, whereas the CPI companies annual fee eased from 6.5% to six.1%.

In different phrases, as I all the time stated would occur, inflation continues to fall fairly quickly. That was inevitable: the way in which through which inflation is measured assured it. Now, as soon as wages have caught up this inflationary episode might be over, having handed fairly shortly, as virtually all such intervals within the UK have all the time completed with out requiring intervention from anybody to make that occur.

There’s, nonetheless, one consequence of this inflation that does stay, and that’s excessive rates of interest.

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Inflation by no means  required rates of interest to be elevated. Their enhance has completed nothing to deal with inflation. However their enhance has undoubtedly fuelled a rise in the price of dwelling. Specifically, they’ve fuelled lease will increase and will increase in mortgage prices, each of which have  significantly elevated financial vulnerability within the UK. They’ve additionally fuelled inflation in a perverse cycle of hurt.

There are at current no indicators that the brand new period of extreme rates of interest – now operating at charges effectively forward of inflation – will finish. Meaning the energetic upward redistribution of wealth within the UK. will proceed. And that could be a catastrophe within the making.

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